Development and validation of a laboratory-based risk score to predict the occurrence of critical illness in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients with COVID-19 who may develop critical illness is of great importance. METHODS: In this study a retrospective cohort of 264 COVID-19 cases admitted at Macarena University was used for development and internal validation of a risk score to predict the occurrence of critical illness in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Backward stepwise logistic regression was used to derive the model, including clinical and laboratory variables predictive of critical illness. Internal validation of the final model used bootstrapped samples and the model scoring derived from the coefficients. External validation was performed in a cohort of 154 cases admitted at Valme and Virgen del Rocio University Hospital. RESULTS: A total of 62 (23.5%) patients developed a critical illness during their hospitalization stay, 21 (8.0%) patients needed invasive ventilation, 34 (12.9%) were admitted at the ICU and the overall mortality was of 14.8% (39 cases). 5 variables were included in the final model: age >59.5 years (OR: 3.11;95%CI 1.39-6.97), abnormal CRP results (OR: 5.76;95%CI 2.32-14.30), abnormal lymphocytes count (OR: 3.252;95%CI 1.56-6.77), abnormal CK results (OR: 3.38;95%CI 1.59-7.20) and abnormal creatinine (OR: 3.30;95%CI 1.42-7.68). The AUC of this model was 0.850 with sensitivity of 65% and specificity of 87% and the IDI and NRI were 0.1744 and 0.2785, respectively. The validation indicated a good discrimination for the external population. CONCLUSIONS: Biomarkers add prognostic information in COVID-19 patients. Our risk-score provides an easy to use tool to identify patients who are likely to develop critical illness during their hospital stay.

Case Report: Decompressive Craniectomy for COVID-19 Malignant Cerebral Artery Infarction. Is Surgery a Good Option?

SARS-CoV2 infection can lead to a prothrombotic state. Large vessel occlusion, as well as malignant cerebral stroke have been described in COVID-19 patients. In the following months, given the increase in COVID-19 cases, an increase in malignant cerebral SARS-CoV2 associated strokes are expected. The baseline situation of the patients as well as the risk of evolution to a serious disease due to the virus, depict a unique scenario. Decompressive craniectomy is a life-saving procedure indicated in patients who suffer a malignant cerebral stroke; however, it is unclear whether the same eligibility criteria should be used for patients with COVID-19. To our knowledge seven cases of decompressive craniectomy and malignant cerebral stroke have been described to date. We report on a 39-year-old female with no major risk factors for cerebrovascular disease, apart from oral contraception, and mild COVID-19 symptoms who suffered from left hemispheric syndrome. The patient underwent endovascular treatment with stenting and afterward decompressive craniectomy due to a worsening neurological status with unilateral unreactive mydriasis. We present the case and provide a comprehensive review of the available literature related to the surgical treatment for COVID-19 associated malignant strokes, to establish whether the same eligibility criteria for non-COVID-19 associated strokes should be used. Eight patients, including our case, were surgically managed due to malignant cerebral stroke. Seven of these patients received decompressive craniectomy, and six of them met the eligibility criteria of the current stroke guidelines. The mortality rate was 33%, similar to that described in non-COVID-19 cases. Two patients had a left middle cerebral artery (MCA) and both survived after decompressive craniectomy. Our results support that decompressive craniectomy, using the current stroke guidelines, should be considered an effective life-saving treatment for COVID-19-related malignant cerebral strokes.